Launch-eston Nights: Race-by-race preview in Tasmania
Launceston - Rail +6m / Good 4
The rail moves back out to the 6m position, off the back of a fairly even track on Newmarket HCP night. I anticipate that the track will remain fair, with a slight favour to those sitting in the front third of the field.
Race 1 - 2100m BM68
Tend to not bet in anything >1600m in TAS as the results are far too volatile to bet with confidence. MAINCOURT is going well this campaign if I had to have a throw at the stumps.
NO BET
Race 2 - 1600m Maiden
Another race I had pegged as “Low Confidence”. Market will dictate if I have a bet here.
LADY SARAH looks to be improving with each run this preparation and can win this without surprising. She recorded a good figure l/s, and I feel she may regress a touch here – but this may prove to still be good enough. She has drawn wide but should have the speed to cross to the lead or OSL.
Will be looking to back her on the drift.
Race 3 - 1100m Maiden
Very very keen here. Haven’t been this keen on a debutant since Bello Beau.
GEEGEES GEMSTONE has trialled like an absolute rocket ahead of this debut contest. He was gelded and sent out at Longford for a trial on the 29/11 and put away 58+ raters with absolute ease, despite being caught wide and racing keenly. Siggy Carr jumped on there and sticks here for the debut run. I have a feeling this 3YO Gelding is above average, and there’s a bit of meat on the bone early! KEEN.
Back GEE GEE GEMSTONE for 3 units WIN at $2.20+
Race 4 - 1100m BM62
Pretty keen here, but I’m putting my faith in two young apprentices Lizzie Annells and Eric Byrne Burke.
All things being equal I think FAIRY MAGIC should be putting these away comfortably. My only concern is the map, which is a touch sticky. Young Lizzie Annells is surrounded by speed, and if she gets into a battle for control she could get herself and FAIRY MAGIC into a bit of strife. Hoping she takes a sit behind the speed, and can navigate her rivals and runs past them on the corner for home. Could be above average this mare, hoping for a touch better price and I’ll be happy to launch in.
Back FAIRY MAGIC for 2 units WIN at $2.40+
Race 5 - 1100m BM76
Another race I’ll be shooting pretty straight. Pretty confident favourite REBEL FACTOR will be adding to his picket fence.
They walked last start and he was able to outsprint them late. There looks a touch more speed on paper here with CORONATION KEITH, MAJESTIC DIAMOND and GEE GEE QUEEN BEE all pressing forward to assume control, and I can’t see any other result than him winning by further as a result.
He’s drawn beautifully again here and meets a similar opposition to last start, which he put away with relative ease – I can’t be jumping off now. KEEN.
Back REBEL FACTOR for 1.5 units WIN at $2.20+
Race 6 - 1200m Class 1
Tough race, even race.
DID YOU DECIDE and DOMINATOR’S GIRL look the best winning hopes. They should both lob behind HEAVEN’S MIRACLE and FANCIFUL FLYING who should fly across and ensure a good tempo here.
I think the two fancies might have to do a bit of work chasing the leaders, and am inclined to find something who might get a nice suck run in behind the speed, and could be finishing off. I landed on ROCK’EM BABY, who I have lobbed 3-fence with Daniel Ganderton on board.
She was inconvenienced last start and still hit the line well late in the piece, gaining lengths on her rivals over the final 400m. She stays at the 1200m and draws inside, if she can get a kind run in behind the leading/chasing bunch she could really show her turn of foot late. She’s worth a play at the price each-way.
Back ROCK’EM BABY for 0.5 units WIN and 1 unit PLACE at $26.00/5.50
Race 7 - 1400m BM62
Not super keen to play here, unless the market pushes a few out.
IMAGINE HOWE and GEEGEE LUCKY JESS I had near enough to equal on top, but no juice in the current price.
Would need them to drift a touch to get involved.
NO BET
Race 8 - 1400m Class 1
Pretty even race to finish, but one runner definitely sticks out in the early markets.
SAXON MIST was off the map in early betting on resumption, but played up in the pre-race as well as the barriers and ran below market expectations. I’m willing to forgive that performance off the back of her antics and trust that she’ll return a lot better here. She’s since had a tick over trial where Daniel Ganderton jumped on, and he sticks on race day. He’s not the most positive rider on the planet, but I can’t see her settling worse than midfield from barrier 3, and I think with clear running should run well at the price.