Launch-eston Nights: Race-by-race preview in Tasmania
Launceston - Rail +7.5m / Good 4
We face a drying deck at Launceston this Wednesday, after some rain earlier in the week. The rail moves back out, and I expect the track to play pretty fairly. If anything the inside lanes could chop up a touch from overuse, as the night progresses.
Race 1 - 1400m BM76
Probably the race of the night!
AZARA looks the pace in the race, and looks a good hope. Suited back to 1400m, and should give punters a sight but 5th up now and facing tough opposition I’m happy to oppose at the price. LE CADEAU was okay this past Sunday behind The Inevitable, he didn’t appear to appreciate the softer going, and with a negative map here and a young apprentice on I’m happy to oppose at the opening quote. SH’BOURNE REBEL is an old boyfriend of mine but he doesn’t look to have come up this prep.
The one I want to be with is REWARD ACHIEVER. She went to a new level last prep registering three wins on the bounce, before being put away. She’s had a couple of trials leading in to this, including a 1400m trial at Longford where she won well. She appreciates the softer going and if Chelsea Baker can find a spot in behind AZARA she should be the one finishing best.
Back REWARD ACHIEVER for 2 units WIN @ $3.60
Race 2 - 1400m Maiden
Bit of a tricky race this one, with a full field at time of writing.
NIGHT MISSILE, DISCLEVABOY and WADDY WADDY all looks some hope but looks short enough at their current prices. Thought ROCKIERRO was a horse with potential upside off a flat run 1st up in TAS. This Ex-Waterhouse-Bott gelding was off the map in betting and ran like a busted, and subsequently pulled up lame. I’m willing to forgive that performance, trust the market support and back him here. He should go close to finding the top, if not sit OSL and give a sight. Not hugely confident but definitely an overlay worth of a small each-way play, particularly if there’s any on-speed bias early in the card.
Back ROCKIERRO for 0.5 units WIN and PLACE at $7.00/2.40
Race 3 - 1200m Maiden
Lots going on here, and I’m not really sure I can make sense of it.
ADA WAY looks the one to beat for Team Trinder, with Liam Riordan jumping on. Has really improved with each of his runs and if he can find a soft run in behind the leaders, looks a great hope.
SISTINE has plenty of convictions at short quotes, but looks to get every chance up on speed again. Can’t back or lay with any confidence.
NO BET
Race 4 - 1100m BM68
Another small field here, but a nice little race.
HANNAH’S SONG looks the likely leader, with MAJESTIC DIAMOND and ASSARANCA inbehind, followed by REBEL FACTOR, DEBRIEF and IRIS WEST.
HANNAH’S SONG won well last start, holding off some nice horses, but was aided by a complete sit and sprint. They crawled early and she was sharp enough late, will she be afforded the same luxury here? I’m not quite sure.
MAJESTIC DIAMOND is the mare on an upward trajectory. She’s improved with each run this campaign, but now faces some quality opposition. Looks quite short, but admittedly there’s not many to get past here to be winning.
Think REBEL FACTOR is the one to beat. I’d be very surprised if Tassie’s finest Brendon McCoull lets Siggy Carr get away with murder up front on HANNAH’S SONG, and if he can get rolling early he’ll be flying past them at the 100m mark. Looks a great bet!
Back REBEL FACTOR for 2 units WIN at $2.90
Race 5 - 1200m Class 1
Looks a bit of a raffle.
LION’S TOOTH the interesting runner. 1 st up in TAS, coming down from the Kendrick stable in the Sunshine Coast. If sound, may prove too good. 4kg claimer on 1 st up a slight concern.
Happy to shoulders arms this one.
Race 6 - 1200m Class 3
Keen to play here.
Although JUST A TRIBUTE won in dominant fashion last start, he looked suited on a spacious Hobart track, in a small field, where you could make ground and he looks a touch short here going up in grade..
QUEENBOROUGH FLYER is another one who goes up in grade here off a quality win, but may find herself pegged back in the field on the fence with a bit to do.
I thought VETLANDA and OUTBOUND were the key map horses and look a touch of overs at their opening quotes. My lean from a betting perspective is VETLANDA who looks to be the stronger horse over 1200m. She comes out of a strong race with plenty of early speed and gets the services of Brendon McCoull. I think he could be the difference late, hopefully early enough to avoid JUST A TRIBUTE and QUEENBOROUGH FLYER rattling home over the top.
Back VETLANDA for 0.75 units WIN at $7.00
Back OUTBOUND for 0.25 units WIN at $7.00
Race 7 - 2100m BM62
Raffle. Good luck if playing.
NO BET.
Race 8 - 1400m BM60
Not a race I’m keen to bet in, but looking forward to INCRIMINATE resuming.
Think he’s got some ability but HAS THE LOOK, GEEGEELUCKYSTAR and HOT RELATION bring race fitness to the table and look great winning chances.
NO BET.
Race 9 - 1400m Class 1
Going into the meeting I was keen on following up NAMABAALE, who strangely couldn’t get past a stablemate last start, but at the opening quote I can’t entertain a bet.
Would need closer to $3.00 to bet with confidence.
NO BET.