Launch-eston Nights: Race-by-race preview in Tasmania
Launceston - Rail True / Soft 6
Anticipating the track to play even for the Conquering Stakes meeting, with a chance of the inside chopping up throughout the meeting, and riders looking to get off the fence as a result. As always at Launceston, I will predominantly focus on runners who should settle no worse than midfield.
Race 1 - 1200m Maiden
Was really keen to declare ADA WAY coming into this meeting but he hasn’t been missed by the price assessors. I still think he’s your winner, but the price is a touch skinny to get involved right away. He should get a lovely run midfield, and looks set to peak 4th up after running into a couple of smart winners thus far.
Hopefully, see something like $2.50-2.70 come jump time.
Back ADA WAY for 1.5 units WIN at $2.50+
Race 2 - 1400m Maiden
Looks a complete raffle, good luck to those playing this race!
ROCKIERRO, ARTFUL PEGASUS, A LITTLE SHADY, AHZEEZAH all look like winning hopes but have too many convictions/unknowns to be backing.
NO BET.
Race 3 - 1100m 2YO HCP
Think we can back one of these with confidence!
Debutant THOROS OF MYR looks pretty smart if his trials are anything to go by. In his first
hit out, he safely took care of debut winner ENCOUNTER SPHERE whom he meets again
here. His second trial was at Launceston where he coasted to the line, knocking off CAIRNS
who was under riding and debuts here. He looks well-educated from the astute Trinder camp
and should be winning here.
Back THOROS OF MYR for 2.5 units WIN at $2.20+
Race 4 - 2100m Class 1
The horse version of the Sydney To Hobart. May the best boat win!
NO BET.
Race 5 - 1200m BM62
After scratchings I think the favourite will now be hard to beat. Can’t back, can’t lay at the price - happy to shoulders arms this one.
NO BET
Race 6 - 1400m 3YO Trophy
Another tough race.
BELLO BEAU looks tough to beat again, after another tradesman-like win in the 3YO Cup over 1200m. He steps up to 1400m for the first time and doesn’t look to get complete control here and for those reasons, I can’t get him as short as the market.
JAGUAR STONE looks suited up in trip after closing well her last two starts behind BELLO BEAU. The real query will be if she can handle the home turn at Launceston, if Troy Baker can balance her up early, she could finally get past her stablemate!
Another horse at odds that peaked my interest was FLYING TO PARIS. She’s drawn beautifully here after an unlucky run last start when caught wide throughout. She’s since had a tick-over trial where she won in dominant fashion. She could run a hot race at odds and give the luckless Maskiell-Hanson camp something to cheer for after a rough few weeks on and off the track.
Back JAGUAR STONE for 1 unit WIN at $6.00+
Back FLYING TO PARIS for 0.5 units WIN and PLACE at $18.00/3.60+
Race 7 - 1400m Conquering Stakes (WFA)
The feature event of the evening! Can THE INEVITABLE maintain his picket fence this prep?! I think he certainly can, but at the current prices, I’ll have to bet around him.
FIRST ACCUSED was off the map late in betting for the Newmarket HCP and ran a great race. He loves the rain-affected going and should find the lead or box-seat from Gate 1 over a trip he relishes. Will the fence be off by then? Time will tell, but he looks a cracking chance – despite the weight swing in THE INEVITABLE’s favour.
The runner that I think can really upset the apple cart here is ALPINE WOLF. This 4YO looked to have come back super off the trials, and then ran valiantly in the Newmarket first-up without any luck in running. He drew inside there and now moves out to Gate 5, hoping Gando can slot into the running line behind the leaders and wind him up around the bend, he looks the rapid improver – particularly at 1400m! KEEN.
Although hard to beat, I think THE INEVITABLE will need the right breaks here to be winning, and at $1.80 he looks very short. FIRST ACCUSED also looks around the right mark. If ALPINE WOLF can wind up late, I think he’s the only one who can match it late with the favourite and there’s some meat on the bone at the current price.
Back ALPINE WOLF for 1 unit WIN at $8.00+
Race 8 - 1400m Class 1
Another even contest with a couple of solid winning hopes. Similar to the previous, I think the favourite looks hard to beat, but at the current price he looks very short.
One horse I have a bit of time for here is NEED A FLUTTER. I thought she ran super first-up behind Donna’s Day who continued her unbeaten run. She steps out in trip here and maps to get a gun run behind the speed. With a bit of cut in the ground late in the card, she could really get motoring late – hopefully Mehmet can find the right part of the track from the pole if the fence is off - think she’s the overs here!
Back NEED A FLUTTER for 1 unit WIN at $6.00+
Race 9 - 1600m BM68
Found this race difficult, and will pass at this stage!
My pin up horse KING ISLAND goes around and should be in this for a long way. My concern is that he may not be able to cross I’M SO COOL (who’s drawn next door), and might have to do a fair bit of grunt work outside the leader. They look the two best hopes for mine. If the speed goes right on, look for UP WIND late.
NO BET