'Gap in the market': Why Philly big man is a value selection for NBA MVP
76ers Early Woes
Pundits had high expectations for the 76ers this season following key roster upgrades signing PJ Tucker and Danuel House. They also traded injured Danny green and the 23rd Overall Pick for Memphis Grizzlies De’Anthony Melton. These added much-needed perimeter defence and shooting.
This was bolstered by some continuity, entering a season with their core players of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid. All importantly, without Ben Simmons looming over the team.
Recent Betting Odds
Joel Embiid ($7) began the season on the second line of betting behind favourite Luka Doncic ($5.5). Luka has now been the favourite entering the season for the third year running without fighting out the finish.
Towards the end of the 2021-22 season ($3.6), Embiid briefly entered favouritism before a late push for Nikola Jokic.
Voter Fatigue
Maybe the most significant factor in Embiid’s favour is the fact he has finished second two years in a row. Critics of the award argue you win it in the year prior because voters like to give everyone a turn. Embiid will be front of mind for MVP voters. If he can provide them a reason to vote for him, they will.
Will he give them a reason? Yes. The 76ers early season woes are too bad to be true. Results normalise over the long 82-game season and the 76ers talent and depth will come to the fore.
Harden’s Injury
Some will point to the James Harden news to say the 76ers will slide further down the ladder (which will hurt Embiid’s MVP case). That is not true. James Harden's introduction to the 76ers has meant means Joel Embiid get fewer touches and finds himself on the receiving end of plays rather than setting up the offence himself.
Embiid’s Fitness and Usage
Embiid’s points, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals have all dropped this season. He is a big-bodied guy who has had issues with his weight and will work his way into the season. With fitness on his side and more touches, the big fella now has the stage set to have a huge month.
What makes this a bet is the price. The market has totally dropped off Embiid’s MVP case.
NBA MVP betting with Baggy Bet
Luka Doncic $4
Giannis Antetokoumpo $4.5
Jayson Tatum $9
Ja Morant $10
Stephen Curry $13
Kevin Durant $15
Nikola Jokic $15
Joel Embiid $15
There are holes in the cases of all the two-time MVPs. Only 8 players have ever won 3 MVPs. Historically, voters are reluctant to put players in that rarefied air as doing so anoints them an all-time great.
It’s laughable for Kevin Duran to be on the same line of betting as Embiid, given the current state of the Nets.
Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum are respected in the market and deservedly so. They are rising stars on competitive teams. Ja Morant is a rising star himself but an MVP this year feels too early for him. At the price point, Embiid is the bet because of the market‘s overreaction 10 games into this season.
It is not uncommon for NBA MVP markets to overreact early. A third of the way through last season Steph Curry was favourite and Lebron James was in the mix. Both were way off the pace come voting time.
Conclusion
Despite Embiid’s injury risk, his $15 quote is too big. This market usually narrows to two or three contenders by the end of the year. When it does, Embiid will be shorter than $15, and you can build a book around the contenders who drift.
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