2022 Melbourne Cup Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips.
Josh Shields has studied the form so that you don’t have to, and has gone through each and every runner in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.
If you’d like the final tick from the yard, make sure you grab Jackson Oldham’s Mounting Yard Mail, where he’ll cast his expert eye on the ponies right before they jump to make sure you cash in.
Let’s dive in to the 2022 Melbourne Cup Runner By Runner analysis, with prices brought to you by BaggyBet.
1 - Gold Trip (14) - 57.5kg - $13
J: M. Zahra
T: C. Maher & D.Eustace
Been an unlucky preparation for connections with him getting nailed on the post in the Caulfield Cup and was very unlucky in the Cox Plate not getting any gaps. The query will be the distance and carrying the big weight. Hie’s a class horse but think this is too big an ask and is under the odds at the current quote.
2 - Duais (10) - 55.5kg - $21
J: H.Bowman
T: E. Cummings
Her best is very good and would be close to being the best horse in the field, but she’s been along way off that in this campaign. You can’t doubt a Cummings in the Cup but she will need to find a few lengths over a distance she’s never seen. Happy to look around.
3 - Knights Order (24) - 55.5kg - $21
J: T. Clark
T: G. Waterhouse & A. Bott
We know what we are going to get from this bloke lead and be tough in the finish. Unlike many of the chances the 3200m will be no issue being the reigning Sydney Cup winner. Comes into this race in terrific order and arguably going as well as ever has. He loves getting his toe into the ground which looks likely for Tuesday and will be in the race for a very long time. Draw has made it a touch sticky but he will have plenty of time to get across from the wide draw. Whether he has the class of the internationals is unknown but he will be one of the first Australian runners home. Top 5 chance.
4 - Montefillia (11) - 55.5kg - $11
J: J. Collett
T: D.Payne
One of the unlucky runners in the Caulfield Cup. Bounced off the flat run in the Hill Stakes and hit the line strongly recording the 7th fastest L200m sectional of the day. The distance is the query but if she gets it, she is one of the leading Australian contenders. Top 5 chance.
5 - Numerian (7) - 55.5kg - $61
J: T. Berry
T: A Neasham
Thought he would be a risk at the 2400m now steps up to 3200m. He will get conditions to suit come Tuesday with the forecast but he will face an uphill battle to see the trip out let alone be competitive with the main chances in the race. Will get a decent passage in the run but looking around.
6 - Without A Fight (18) - 55.5kg - $11
J: W. Buick
T: S & E. Crisford
Have warmed to him in the last few weeks with him being one of the internationals with foreign experience. Travelled to Dubai and took on some of the best stayers in the world in the Sheema Classic and he was far from disgraced in that race. Since that race has been in solid form back home with all runs topping him off for this event. Hasn’t seen the 3200m before but his will to win and class will take him along way. One of the leading chances.
7 - Camorra (17) - 55kg - $51
J: B. Melham
T: B & JD Hayes
Feel he is the international with the least credentials coming into the Cup. His ratings are not as strong as leading contenders and has question marks on whether he handles the soft to heavy ranged tracks. Im happy to risk but he won’t be the worst here.
8 - Deauville Legend (9) - 55kg - $3.70
J: K. McEvoy
T: J. Ferguson
The rightful favourite with the form lines he is bringing to this contest. Defeated El Bogadon by over 4L in his latest run which looks decent form now after his run in the Cox Plate. The slight negatives on him is the distance and whether he will handle the heavy conditions if it gets to that rating. His full sister has recently won a heavy track in France, which may help him slightly. His class will take him along way and will be mighty hard to beat.
9 - Stockman (2) - 54kg - $26
J: S. Clipperton
T: J. Pride
Put in a lovely bit of work in the Rosehill Gold Cup to top him off for the Cup. He will be doing very little from the barrier and with a decent start should lob in a great position. Wet conditions will suit and will be suited stepping up to the 3200m now. He’s a top 10 chance but doubt he troubles the placings.
10 - Vow And Declare (4) - 54kg - $20
J: B. Shine
T: D. O’Brien
The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner looks to be getting back to somewhat near his best form. He will get a lovely run here but the query will be the wet track conditions. Its well known he doesn’t go well in the worser range of soft and heavy range and it will be likely those conditions come race day. His in form but happy to look around due to the track conditions.
11 - Young Werther (21) - 54kg - $31
J: D. Lane
T: D. O’Brien
The 1 time winner looks well tested to be competitive here. He wasn’t disgraced in the Cox Plate behind Australia’s best but the run didn’t scream back me in Melbourne Cup. Would’ve liked to have seen a run at 2400m+ at least once in his campaign to have the grounding for the 3200m. At 31’s, think he is unders.
12 - Hoo Ya Mal (15) - 53.5kg - $17
J: C. Williams
T: G. Waterhouse & A. Bott
Last of the imports who brings similar form lines to the race as the favourite. Second in the Epsom Derby at cricket score odds and then went to the Gordon Stakes where he started shorter than Deauville Legend and only finished 0.5L behind that horse. Has decent form on the Soft to Heavy range but the question marks are whether he gets a strong 3200m. It’s the same as many in the field even the favourite and it's a big price discrepancy between them. Williams is airborne at the moment and if he can land forward of midfield with cover he is in this up to his eye balls. Top chance & over the odds at current quote.
13 - Serpentine (23) - 53.5kg - $61
J: J. Allen
T: R. Hickmott
The Epsom Derby winner was going terribly before a much improved run in the Archer Stakes. Think he will need to go to another level here but looks to be improving with every run he is having here in Australia. Doubt it will be enough to win here but can’t discount a horse from this team.
14 - Daiquansweet Junior (13) - 53kg - $31
J: D. Moor
T: P. Stokes
With him solidly entrenched in the field a long way out Stokes has used this prep to peak on GF day. Finished within a length of Emissary and Lunar Flare in the Foundation Cup before heading to the Bart Cummings where he was set a task but battled on okay. That form has held up well since and the 3200m won’t be an issue for him. Massive run in the Sydney Cup on the bog which will hold him in good stead for this. Will get a decent run from the draw and think he is one to add in multiples at a juicy price.
15 - Grand Promenade (1) - 53kg - $81
J: H. Coffey
T: C. Maher & D. Eustace
Thought he was disappointing in the MV Gold Cup and would need to improve significantly to be get close to the second horse in that race here. Was massive in this race last year caught wide the trip and still had the will to finish 6th. He will have a much easier passage this time around and should be at his peak now. Needs to improve.
16 - Arapaho (19) - 52.5kg - $71
J: R. King
T: B. Baker
Congratulations to the connections having a runner in the Cup but doubt he has the class to trouble the leading contenders. Likely track conditions will be help but has far too many negatives to be making a case for him.
17 - Emissary (3) - 51.5kg - $31
J: P. Moloney
T: M. Moroney
Forced his way into the race by winning the Geelong Cup and in good fashion too. It was a career peak for him but think going into this it’s the weaker form line. A strong 3200m and likely track conditions are a negative. Way to short at current odds and happy to look around.
18 - Lunar Flare (12) - 51.5kg - $17
J: M. Dee
T: G. Begg
Begg has got this girl in career best form and by winning the Bart Cummings has ensured him to get her to peak in this. Solid lead in through the MV Gold Cup where being set a task but really liked her late work closing in the best closing sectionals of the race. 3200m is a foreign test but comes into this at her peak and is one of the leading Australian contenders.
19 - Smokin Romans (16) - 51.5kg - $18
J: J. Kah
T: C. Maher & D. Eustace
The Caulfield Cup favourite was quite unlucky in that race with Kah missing boat when the speed went on and just never had a real crack at them. Has gone to another level so far this campaign and have to trust the SP in the Caulfield Cup. Failed at 2800m in the Bagot but did have excuses that day. He will run well with the light weight but may lack the class to trouble the leading contenders. Top 10 chance.
20 - Tralee Rose (22) - 51.5kg - $91
J: D. Yendall
T: S. Wilde
Put in a much improved run in the Caulfield Cup after a sub par start to the campaign. Hit the line strongly after copping a check at the 300m mark. Even though she was a touch unlucky feel others were much stronger than her there and would need to make significant improvement to trouble here. Looks a bridge too far.
21 - Point Nepean (20) - 51kg - $51
J: W. Lordon
T: R. Hickmont
Gained an early golden ticket into the Cup by winning the Andrew Ramsdan in the Autumn. Been in the market for two runs this prep where he has really struggled. Those runs have been likely used as barrier trials for the main goal of the preparation. The stable is going awfully but you can never discount these runners especially in this race. Has upside and it wouldn’t shock to see him run well here. Top 10 chance.
22 - High Emocean (8) - 50kg - $31
J:T. Nugent
T: C. Maher & D. Eustace
Sneaks into the field off her win in the Bendigo Cup. Prior to that she was a length and a half of Francesco Guardi and Lunar Flare and that form looks decent for the Australian runners. Conditions will suit, in the right stable and maps to get a great run from the draw. She’s a top 10 player
23 - Interpretation (6) - 50kg - $31
J: C. Newitt
T: C. Maher & D. Eustace
Have to respect the SP profile of this bloke who has started near favourite in strong lead ups for the Cup. He looks very dour and one that will be guaranteed to run the trip. Likely to be in the first couple trying to take advantage of the light weight and make it a true staying test. Awful record on rain affected ground and still needs to improve a couple lengths to be competitive here. Looking around.
24 - Realm Of Flowers (5) - 50kg - $11
J: D. Thornton
T: A & S. Freedman
Scrapes her way into the field and with the conditions likely to be in the Soft-Heavy range she is a big player in this. She was huge in defeat in the Metropolitan where she was 3 wide no cover and still had the audacity to hit the line strongly and be beaten a pimple. Tick over trial between runs was strong and she now drops to 50kgs. She’s one that has no issues getting the 3200m. She is a top 5 player and can win.
Top 5
Without A Fight ($11)
Realm Of Flowers ($11)
Deauville Legend ($3.70)
Hoo Ya Mal ($18)
Knights Order ($21)
MELBOURNE CUP BEST BETS:
6: Without A Fight - Win @ $11 with BaggyBet
24: Realm Of Flowers - Win @ $11 with BaggyBet
12: Hoo Ya Mal - Win @ $18 with BaggyBet
Boxed Tri & F4: 3,4,6,8,12,14,18,24
If you’d like an expert eye from the yard for the final tick before betting on the 2022 Melbourne Cup, then be sure to grab professional punter Jackson Oldham’s Melbourne Mounting Yard Mail product. He will be giving his race-by-race Mounting Yard mail to his subscribers to make sure you have a fill up at Flemington.
*Odds correct at time of publishing, brought to you by BaggyBet.
