2022 Victorian Derby Runner By Runner Preview, Odds & Tips.
Josh Shields has studied the form so that you don’t have to, and has gone through each and every runner in the 2022 Victorian Derby.
If you’d like the final tick from the yard, make sure you grab Jackson Oldham’s Mounting Yard Mail, where he’ll cast his expert eye on the ponies right before they jump to make sure you cash in.
Let’s dive in to the 2022 Victorian Derby Runner By Runner analysis, with prices brought to you by BaggyBet.
1 - Sharp ’N’ Smart (3) - $3.70 (Best price anywhere)
J: J. McDonald
T: G & D. Roberson
Confident he is the best horse in the race but hate the set up. Come Saturday this will be his third run in 18 days and comes here off a gut buster sitting 3 wide in the Spring Champion. If he has bounced out of that in good condition he will be mighty hard to beat but I’m wary taking the short quote.
2 - Berkeley Square (5) - $3.10
J: C. Williams
T: D. O’Sullivan
The rightful favourite and brings the A grade form for this. Was a super lead up run in the Vase last week which was ran in similar time to the Cox Plate and before was unlucky not to finish in the placings in the Guineas. Maps to get the soft run and has the versatility to go forward or back. Williams knows him well now and he has looked every bit a stayer from his early days. The one to beat.
3 - Let’srollthedice (7) -
J: B. Melham
T: D. O’Brien
Scratched.
4 - Mr Maestro (17) - $6.50
J: D. Lane
T: A. Forsman
Apart from drawing the members stand here, this bloke has had a near perfect lead into his main goal for the spring. Was dominant in his first two starts here in Australia before being made to work in the Norman Robinson after a sub par ride. Lane will likely have to take his medicine and be negative from the draw, but his prep should have him being one of the strongest late. He’s a leading chance.
5 - Pericles (6) - $7.50
J: W. Buick
T: J. Cummings
In only his first preparation and fourth career start finds himself in the Derby. Vase form looks strong in this and was jumping from the 1400m - 2000m there. It's going to be a tough ask to jump again off this platform and be strong late. Maps to get a soft draw and if he holds his form will be there about. Im happy to be against but it’s scary taking on this camp at the present time.
6 - Grand Pierro (15) - $31
J: M. Zahra
T: J. Warren
Two starts back wasn’t far off a few of the more fancied runners in the Super Impose before winning the Geelong Classic. Looked to really relish the step up to the 2200m there. Will be ridden negatively from the draw again and it wouldn’t surprise if he can run into the placings.
7 - Manzoice (8) - $21
J: M. Dee
T: C. Waller
Was given 0 last weekend in the Spring Champion but put in a sneaky good bit of work late in the race recording some strong closing sectionals in the race. Has been looking like a Derby aspirant from early on and looks to get a good run through transit. Needs to find a few lengths on the fav but he should be included in multiples.
8 - Foujita Sun (9) - $21
J: J. McNeil
T: M, W & J. Hawkes
The jump from the 1600m Caulfield Guineas to the Derby distance was successful last year through Hitotsu who is an absolute freak in my opinion and with the right staying camp. Doubt he is at that level and this looks a bridge too far. Happy to be against.
9 - Skyphios (14) - $61
J: H. Coffey
T: R. Blacker
One thing we will know he will stay the distance. Will be a big turn around in form should he go close here after being comprehensively beaten last weekend in the Vase. Will be fitter but think he has too many lengths to make up on the favourites.
10 - Muramasa (4) - $16
J: D. Moor
T: T. Busuttin & N. Young
The impeccably bred colt looks ready to run a big race here. The concern is the wet track with trainers suggesting he will be a much better horse on top of the ground. Went very close to toppling the then Derby favourite Mr Maestro in the Norman Robinson. He was only third up there and should take further improvement. Multiple player on anything better than a 6.
11 - Fearless Knight (11) - $71
J: B. Prebble
T: K. Fogden
Still a maiden after 8 starts and doubt he will break it here. Was solid in the better going in the Norman Robinson but needs to find a few lengths improvement to be a chance here.
12 - Beradino (10) - $31
J: D. Oliver
T: T. Busuttin & N. Young
His one that looks a dour type and the step up in distance should be a positive. Stuck on well in the inferior going last weekend but hard to see him turning around the margin to the winner and third that day.
13 - Distrustful Award (12) - $26
J: D. Yendall
T: P. Preusker
Has put some good runs in behind Mr Maestro in 2 of his last 3 runs. Was very good in the inferior ground latest and now has a good platform for this. Feel his a couple lengths off the best of them but it wouldn’t shock if he ran a race.
14 - Highland Blaze (13) - $126
J: L. Riordan
T: J. Pallot
Put a nice win on the board at Moe getting the 2200m on the Soft 7. He will stay the distance but he will find the class of the race tough.
15 - King’s Crossing (16) - $41
J: J. Allen
T: D. O’Brien
Good hit out leading into this having to make a long sustained run from the 700m and was only nabbed late. Feel the stablemate is the no.1 seed and had further improvement left in the tank. He won’t be the worst.
16 - Lehndorrff (1) - $101
J: J. Parr
T: M. Newnham
Led at its latest and won strongly in much weaker class than this. Aided by a soft draw but think he will be well and truly tested here.
17 - Aberfeldie Boy (2) - $81
J: R. Griffiths & M. De Kock
Looks a horse that’s improving with every run and will enjoy the step up to 2500m. Maps to get a sweet run and wouldn’t surprise if it runs a cheeky race at big odds if it gains a start.
Victoria Derby Best Bets
2: Berkeley Square Win $3.10 at BaggyBet
4: Mr Maestro Win $6.50 at BaggyBet
If you’d like an expert eye from the yard for the final tick before betting on the 2022 Victoria Derby, then be sure to grab professional punter Jackson Oldham’s Melbourne Mounting Yard Mail product. He will be giving his race-by-race Mounting Yard mail to his subscribers to make sure you have a fill up at Flemington.
*Odds correct at time of publishing, brought to you by BaggyBet.
