Rough As Guts - Wednesday Value Bets 12/10/22

Caulfield

Race 6

Paperboy - 1 unit win, 1 unit place (currently $14 win and $4.2 place with Baggybet) - This horse represents excellent value at the current prices. He has a sensational record at the track and trip 6:2-2-0 and races well when second-up 4:2-0-0. He was never suited by the Valley when first-up from a spell and just seven months ago he was beating a horse called Old Flame with a starting price of $3.6, a product that would undoubtedly start favourite in this event.

Market - CAULFIELD Race 6 Marshall White Trophy Bm 84 Odds | baggybet

Race 7

Great Barrier Reef - 0.5 unit win, 0.5 unit place (currently $15 win and $4 place with Baggybet) - Happy to have a small play on this horse now fourth-up from a spell with James McDonald taking the reins. It gets a nice barrier and produced a strong last 200 metres relative to the race, suggesting 1200m will be suitable here.

Eponymous - 0.5 unit win. 0.5 unit place (currently $16 and $4.2 with Baggybet) - Another Waller runner who I feel is in with a chance as long as the track is playing somewhat fairly. He produced a big last 200 metres off a slow pace around the Valley last start and although that race hasn’t rated that highly, I expect this horse to be better suited around Caulfield.

Market - CAULFIELD Race 7 Catanachs Blue Sapphire Odds | baggybet