Rough As Guts - Wednesday Value Bets 19/10/22

Geelong

Happy to have some early specs on Geelong Cup Day.

Race 5

Tararua - 1 unit win, 1 unit place (currently $9 win and $3 place with Baggybet) - Produced a dominant win last start on the synthetic track, if he can convert that performance onto what I think will be a good track he will be right in the finish. Although it’s 33 days since the last start win, he has since jumped out beating the smart Elite Icon in quick time and under minimal riding. This horse is clearly going well and draws well today.

Market - GEELONG Race 5 Plan Group Geelong Bm 64 Odds | baggybet

Race 10

Carlisle - 1 unit win, 1 unit place (currently $8.5 win and $2.9 place with Baggybet) - He is an on pacer who has won previously around this distance range and when third-up. He gets an in form jockey who is striking at 22% his last 50 efforts which includes riding this horse at its last start win. This is not an overly strong race with many of the main dangers expected to settle behind this runner.

Magical Land - 1 unit win, 1 unit place (currently $14 win and $4.2 place with Baggybet) - I thought this horse was very good late in the race two starts back in his Australian debut. Second-up and at 1400m he was crowded for room for most of the straight and only really got clear when the race was over. Third up today and up again in trip I feel he is a better chance than the market currently suggests.

Market - GEELONG Race 10 Here For The Horses Bm 78 Odds | baggybet